tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2116 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2116 Southwest Flight history → MCO 12:00 TYS 13:45 20% 4% 15.2% 77%
G4 1420 Allegiant Flight history → MCO 21:48 TYS 23:33 35% 17% 17.6% 20%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 08:39 → TYS 09:36DL 1290 4h 06m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 55m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45AA 1896 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 5h 38m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:35 → BNA 08:35WN 550 1h 35m Nashville BNA 10:10 → TYS 12:00WN 4206 4h 25m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 1h 04m Chicago ORD 09:40 → TYS 12:30AA 5014 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:30 → TYS 13:19UA 6037 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:45 → TYS 12:53AA 2873 7h 23m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TYS 21:59AA 5453 · flown by PSA 6h 14m 68% 42%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:20 → BNA 18:30WN 4711 50m Nashville BNA 19:20 → TYS 21:15WN 694 3h 55m 63% 38%
AmericanDetails → MCO 19:40 → MIA 20:57AA 2147 48m Miami MIA 21:45 → TYS 23:59AA 2716 4h 19m 52% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON