Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5638 MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5275 MDT 17:43 → CLT 19:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5638 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 08:24	CLT 10:08	11%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 5275 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 17:43	CLT 19:29	18%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 5833 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 06:31	CLT 08:20	9%	4%	0.0%	91%
AA 6100 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 05:00	CLT 06:44	11%	6%	1.4%	89%
AA 5786 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	CLT 12:25	14%	3%	0.0%	86%
AA 5835 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 12:02	CLT 13:48	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
AA 5832 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 15:30	CLT 17:18	41%	16%	0.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON