tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:41, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 977 American Flight history → MDT 07:05 DFW 09:31 10% 4% 1.0% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 08m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MDT 06:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6013 · flown by Piedmont 3h 22m Philadelphia PHL 11:02 → DFW 13:38AA 417 7h 53m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MDT 10:15 → PHL 11:14AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont 1h 38m Philadelphia PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415 6h 16m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684 2h 47m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 42m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MDT 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5833 · flown by Piedmont 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285 7h 45m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MDT 10:40 → ORD 11:56UA 4185 · flown by GoJet 1h 09m Chicago ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290 6h 08m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MDT 06:15 → IAD 07:13UA 4244 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 17m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 38m 91% 83%
AmericanDetails → MDT 05:43 → ORD 06:59AA 4651 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 09:40 → DFW 12:13AA 3052 7h 30m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON