Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4651 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4651 MDT 05:43 → ORD 06:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:45 → ORD 21:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4651 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 05:43	ORD 06:59	6%	3%	1.0%	99%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	9%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 4746 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 11:41	ORD 12:55	12%	4%	0.9%	87%
UA 2860 United Flight history →	MDT 17:55	ORD 19:05	23%	7%	0.9%	57%
UA 5568 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MDT 14:11	ORD 15:30	24%	10%	1.4%	56%
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	28%	7%	1.4%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON