Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2726 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2726 MDW 05:05 → AUS 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3171 MDW 18:20 → AUS 20:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2726 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:05	AUS 07:35	3%	1%	0.7%	94%
WN 2727 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:40	AUS 12:15	10%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 2728 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:50	AUS 14:25	17%	3%	0.6%	71%
WN 775 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:35	AUS 00:10	27%	7%	0.6%	56%
WN 3171 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:20	AUS 20:55	30%	7%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON