tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 496 at 14:05, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 496 Southwest Flight history → MDW 14:05 BHM 15:45 16% 4% 0.6% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 5h 10m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377 2h 35m Dallas DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271 6h 30m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959 2h 05m Nashville BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434 4h 25m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765 1h 40m Denver DEN 10:00 → BHM 13:40WN 3193 6h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034 5h 52m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132 6h 50m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → BHM 18:55DL 2371 6h 14m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355 3h 50m Baltimore BWI 15:35 → BHM 16:40WN 3656 7h 45m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON