Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 758 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 758 MDW 07:55 → BUF 10:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4110 MDW 19:05 → BUF 21:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 758 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:55	BUF 10:25	6%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 1655 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:00	BUF 15:30	15%	3%	0.7%	64%
WN 4110 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:05	BUF 21:40	25%	7%	0.7%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON