Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2741 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	BUR 12:25	15%	3%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BUR 09:15WN 2929	6h 00m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	6h 20m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 25m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	6h 40m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 09:50 → BUR 11:15WN 1100	6h 05m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	3h 25m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	8h 30m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	7h 25m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	2h 55m Dallas	DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076	8h 25m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 19:55 → BUR 21:10WN 2202	6h 15m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON