Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2742 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2745 MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:00	BWI 09:45	5%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 1355 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:55	BWI 11:45	6%	1%	0.7%	90%
WN 2744 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:55	BWI 14:45	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 1020 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:30	BWI 17:25	16%	5%	0.7%	42%
WN 2746 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:50	BWI 23:50	20%	6%	0.8%	49%
WN 4616 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:20	BWI 20:15	23%	6%	0.7%	44%
WN 2745 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:00	BWI 21:55	26%	6%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON