Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1139 at 11:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1139 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	BZN 13:10	10%	3%	0.5%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → BZN 09:35WN 826	5h 20m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946	5h 53m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406	8h 11m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:15 → DEN 18:00WN 2769	3h 45m Denver	DEN 21:45 → BZN 23:35WN 1505	8h 20m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	1h 00m Denver	DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219	5h 15m	90%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797	3h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 22:05 → BZN 01:15 +1WN 992	9h 20m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	5h 46m	72%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON