Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 356 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 356 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:05	CHS 11:25	8%	1%	1.0%	96%
WN 2042 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	CHS 22:55	25%	5%	0.7%	32%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → CHS 12:40WN 469	4h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → CHS 13:15WN 899	5h 15m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 16m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 11:05 → CHS 14:35WN 4700	6h 55m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	2h 10m St Louis	STL 14:20 → CHS 17:20WN 1467	5h 20m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	7h 01m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54DL 3179	6h 49m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON