Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1377 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1377 MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2961 MDW 18:25 → DAL 20:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1377 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:00	DAL 07:15	4%	1%	0.7%	96%
WN 3796 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:40	DAL 09:00	4%	1%	0.7%	96%
WN 1487 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	DAL 12:15	13%	2%	0.7%	73%
WN 2757 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:20	DAL 14:35	14%	3%	0.7%	71%
WN 35 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	DAL 13:15	16%	3%	0.7%	50%
WN 2758 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:20	DAL 18:35	25%	6%	0.7%	52%
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:40	DAL 22:55	31%	6%	0.7%	50%
WN 2961 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:25	DAL 20:40	31%	6%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON