Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2989 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2989 MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1497 MDW 18:00 → DEN 19:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2989 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:15	DEN 06:50	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 2765 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:50	DEN 08:20	7%	1%	0.6%	84%
WN 2654 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:55	DEN 11:30	10%	2%	0.6%	68%
WN 2960 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	DEN 12:30	17%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 2768 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:30	DEN 16:10	20%	5%	0.6%	52%
WN 2770 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	DEN 23:10	22%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 2769 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:15	DEN 18:00	23%	5%	0.6%	62%
WN 1497 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:00	DEN 19:45	26%	5%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON