Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1771 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1771 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	DSM 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 4279 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 22:05	DSM 23:35	23%	8%	0.6%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:00 → DSM 12:50WN 1524	7h 35m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 34m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 47m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	5h 19m	87%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:05DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 11m	91%	70%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	3h 25m Denver	DEN 19:35 → DSM 22:25WN 2940	7h 55m	97%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON