Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2773 at 08:40, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2773 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:40	ECP 10:50	8%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:00 → MCI 09:30WN 2808	1h 10m Kansas City	MCI 10:40 → ECP 12:45WN 2552	4h 45m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	6h 20m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	6h 50m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 27m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	3h 45m St Louis	STL 15:55 → ECP 17:40WN 4988	6h 40m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → HOU 09:15WN 4497	1h 45m Houston	HOU 11:00 → ECP 12:45WN 1790	6h 05m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → DAL 13:15WN 35	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 15:20 → ECP 17:15WN 1307	6h 15m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON