Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2774 at 13:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2774 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:55	ELP 16:00	19%	4%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → ELP 09:40WN 1201	5h 25m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → ELP 10:05WN 3889	5h 45m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	2h 00m Dallas	DAL 11:00 → ELP 11:40WN 1310	6h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002	8h 20m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	9h 09m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 18:20 → ELP 19:05WN 1312	7h 45m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	2h 55m Austin	AUS 15:10 → ELP 15:45WN 946	7h 05m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	50m Dallas	DAL 13:05 → ELP 13:45WN 4396	4h 45m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON