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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 21m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 6h 59m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 2h 35m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 5h 37m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 6h 48m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 49m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 7h 13m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 2h 00m Detroit DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567 5h 04m 90% 59%
FrontierDetails → MDW 12:11 → ATL 15:13F9 2144 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28F9 1158 8h 17m 99% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON