tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4864 at 11:50, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4864 Southwest Flight history → MDW 11:50 GEG 13:35 17% 4% 0.5% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:50 → GEG 09:10WN 3433 5h 55m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → GEG 11:40DL 787 7h 40m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → GEG 11:40WN 2306 7h 10m 94% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752 1h 55m San Jose SJC 14:25 → GEG 16:30WN 3670 8h 25m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 09:45 → GEG 12:20WN 2491 9h 00m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366 2h 20m Oakland OAK 15:00 → GEG 16:55WN 804 8h 45m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 11:00 → DEN 12:30WN 2960 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:05 → GEG 17:30WN 4440 8h 30m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 18:00 → DEN 19:45WN 1497 2h 20m Denver DEN 22:05 → GEG 23:30WN 1538 7h 30m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06DL 2418 6h 00m 64% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON