Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4497 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4497 MDW 06:40 → HOU 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1431 MDW 19:15 → HOU 21:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4497 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:40	HOU 09:15	5%	1%	1.1%	88%
WN 2783 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	HOU 12:50	11%	2%	1.1%	86%
WN 709 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:50	HOU 14:25	18%	4%	1.1%	50%
WN 1124 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 15:00	HOU 17:35	21%	5%	0.8%	55%
WN 2785 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:40	HOU 20:15	27%	7%	0.8%	56%
WN 954 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	HOU 00:15	27%	5%	0.7%	42%
WN 1431 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:15	HOU 21:50	30%	6%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON