Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2104 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2104 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	ICT 12:00	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 4241 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	ICT 23:40	23%	8%	0.5%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:46 → ICT 12:55DL 1060	6h 55m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 13:23 → ICT 15:09DL 3595 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	6h 42m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	3h 05m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ICT 13:50WN 4262	7h 00m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → ICT 15:20WN 1276	7h 50m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	3h 45m Denver	DEN 19:55 → ICT 22:25WN 1551	7h 55m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON