Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3877 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3877 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	IND 12:05	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 3190 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	IND 23:30	31%	6%	0.6%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537	4h 05m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 50m Denver	DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00WN 1552	6h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → IND 15:17DL 5846 · flown by Republic	5h 00m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960	4h 30m	95%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529	1h 45m Kansas City	MCI 13:30 → IND 16:00WN 1432	4h 40m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	4h 39m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 31m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → IND 00:07 +1DL 5095 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	73%	51%
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674	4h 10m	52%	42%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:35 → PHX 18:15WN 2861	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 19:15 → IND 01:45 +1WN 3231	8h 10m	72%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON