Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4499 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4499 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:40	JAX 12:00	8%	2%	0.7%	80%
WN 2792 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:20	JAX 22:40	26%	6%	1.4%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → JAX 12:35WN 541	4h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 00m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 10m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	6h 00m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970	5h 35m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	7h 08m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 59m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	3h 25m St Louis	STL 15:35 → JAX 18:35WN 3933	6h 35m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON