Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 20m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378	7h 43m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	7h 48m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	6h 06m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	7h 20m	89%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON