Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1182 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1182 MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 596 MDW 20:15 → LAS 22:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1182 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:30	LAS 08:20	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 347 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:30	LAS 09:20	10%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 2794 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:10	LAS 11:00	12%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 2795 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:40	LAS 15:35	24%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 2797 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:55	LAS 18:45	30%	7%	0.6%	54%
WN 596 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:15	LAS 22:05	31%	7%	0.6%	32%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	50m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	5h 20m	87%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	55m Phoenix	PHX 09:40 → LAS 10:50WN 4543	5h 40m	91%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	50m Dallas	DAL 13:05 → LAS 13:45WN 3061	5h 45m	84%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON