Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2801 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MDW 05:15 → LGA 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 556 MDW 17:15 → LGA 20:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:15	LGA 08:15	4%	1%	0.9%	93%
WN 2038 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:05	LGA 11:20	11%	2%	0.9%	96%
WN 4044 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:50	LGA 12:55	15%	3%	0.8%	75%
WN 2803 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:55	LGA 16:00	29%	6%	0.9%	52%
WN 4120 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	LGA 23:00	38%	10%	1.0%	27%
WN 2804 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:50	LGA 17:55	38%	8%	0.9%	59%
WN 556 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:15	LGA 20:20	43%	10%	0.9%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON