Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4413 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:15	LGB 15:30	22%	4%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → LGB 09:15WN 1580	6h 00m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165	6h 35m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505	7h 45m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	1h 50m Nashville	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	7h 30m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260	7h 15m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	1h 50m Oakland	OAK 14:30 → LGB 15:55WN 2951	7h 45m	96%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	6h 55m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	2h 05m Denver	DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037	7h 30m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:35 → PHX 18:15WN 2861	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 19:15 → LGB 20:35WN 4352	6h 00m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON