Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2808 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2808 MDW 08:00 → MCI 09:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2814 MDW 21:45 → MCI 23:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2808 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MCI 09:30	6%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:20	MCI 11:45	11%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 2810 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:05	MCI 13:30	14%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 4407 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:10	MCI 15:35	17%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 2812 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:05	MCI 17:30	21%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 1482 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:30	MCI 22:05	22%	6%	0.6%	48%
WN 2814 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:45	MCI 23:20	22%	6%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON