Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2815 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2815 MDW 05:10 → MCO 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2820 MDW 18:35 → MCO 22:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2815 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:10	MCO 08:40	3%	1%	15.6%	93%
WN 2816 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:30	MCO 10:05	5%	1%	15.5%	90%
WN 2817 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MCO 11:35	9%	3%	16.7%	78%
WN 2818 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:00	MCO 14:35	17%	5%	17.6%	59%
WN 2819 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:40	MCO 17:30	18%	7%	17.3%	55%
WN 2821 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:55	MCO 00:35	19%	7%	17.3%	47%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:10	MCO 20:55	23%	8%	17.2%	75%
WN 2820 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:35	MCO 22:10	28%	10%	17.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON