tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2824 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2824 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:05 MEM 11:40 9% 2% 0.6% 82%
WN 4100 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:25 MEM 23:10 25% 6% 0.7% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 32m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989 3h 40m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 8h 40m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796 3h 25m Dallas DAL 12:25 → MEM 13:50WN 888 7h 10m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355 3h 30m Baltimore BWI 15:15 → MEM 16:30WN 4024 7h 35m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939 7h 11m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 6h 14m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → MEM 19:28DL 2384 6h 47m 99% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124 3h 00m Houston HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15WN 4745 7h 15m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON