Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 830 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 830 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:40	MHT 10:50	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 4250 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:50	MHT 22:00	30%	5%	0.6%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 35m Baltimore	BWI 11:20 → MHT 12:50WN 1003	4h 50m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 14:55 → MHT 16:25WN 1004	6h 30m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 16:50 → MHT 18:25WN 4736	5h 30m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → MHT 00:10 +1WN 1668	5h 50m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON