tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1702 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1702 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:20 MKE 11:05 11% 3% 0.8% 90%
WN 2043 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:55 MKE 22:50 27% 10% 0.8% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 5h 53m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 5h 15m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → MKE 11:50WN 1011 4h 50m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765 1h 55m Denver DEN 10:15 → MKE 13:40WN 1626 6h 50m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529 3h 55m Kansas City MCI 15:40 → MKE 17:10WN 4974 6h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 6h 46m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 6h 35m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 3h 45m Nashville BNA 16:30 → MKE 18:05WN 4733 6h 45m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745 55m Baltimore BWI 22:50 → MKE 23:55WN 1015 4h 55m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON