Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2869 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2869 MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 4085 MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2869 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:15	MSP 11:45	9%	2%	0.6%	70%
WN 2832 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 15:30	MSP 17:00	17%	4%	0.6%	60%
WN 4643 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:05	MSP 18:35	22%	6%	0.6%	65%
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:50	MSP 23:20	26%	6%	0.6%	56%
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON