Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1695 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1695 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:10	MYR 11:20	8%	2%	0.9%	97%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	MYR 22:50	24%	8%	0.7%	33%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412	5h 10m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 00m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	5h 40m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:56 → MYR 16:40DL 2327	5h 46m	93%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902	2h 25m St Louis	STL 16:35 → MYR 19:30WN 3027	5h 30m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:58DL 3074	5h 48m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	7h 02m	99%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	2h 45m Baltimore	BWI 20:10 → MYR 21:45WN 4220	6h 15m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON