Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4114 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4114 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	OKC 12:15	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3881 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	OKC 23:35	25%	7%	0.6%	36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 20m Denver	DEN 08:10 → OKC 10:50WN 3010	5h 35m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	6h 12m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 10:45 → OKC 11:45WN 4128	6h 45m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	2h 20m Denver	DEN 10:40 → OKC 13:15WN 1652	6h 25m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	2h 15m Phoenix	PHX 11:00 → OKC 15:10WN 3309	8h 00m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	6h 42m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784	7h 34m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	5h 17m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	55m Washington	DCA 16:30 → OKC 18:35WN 1188	5h 50m	74%	51%
Southwest Details →	MDW 19:15 → HOU 21:50WN 1431	55m Houston	HOU 22:45 → OKC 00:10 +1WN 4641	4h 55m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON