Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2846 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:45	ONT 13:50	16%	4%	0.6%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → ONT 09:05WN 1660	5h 50m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759	5h 45m	95%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	6h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	2h 35m Denver	DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080	7h 20m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 11:45 → ONT 12:45WN 2298	7h 15m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 15:15 → ONT 16:35WN 381	8h 25m	99%	73%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855	6h 40m	91%	73%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	2h 10m Dallas	DAL 14:25 → ONT 15:25WN 1375	7h 25m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON