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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:03 → PBI 12:54DL 1190 5h 54m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 6h 41m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 7h 10m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36DL 959 6h 31m 98% 69%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → PBI 14:05WN 1044 6h 05m 97% 67%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020 3h 15m Baltimore BWI 20:40 → PBI 23:20WN 1045 7h 50m 95% 64%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 2h 30m Nashville BNA 15:15 → PBI 18:25WN 4848 6h 05m 99% 64%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 13:40 → MCO 17:30WN 2819 3h 20m Orlando MCO 20:50 → PBI 22:05WN 2678 7h 25m 100% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON