Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2809 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2809 MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 2852 MDW 21:35 → PDX 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2809 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	PDX 12:25	16%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 4765 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:40	PDX 19:00	27%	6%	0.6%	33%
WN 2852 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:35	PDX 23:55	33%	6%	0.7%	45%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → PDX 09:25WN 300	6h 10m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667	6h 20m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON