Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2858 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2858 MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2863 MDW 20:35 → PHX 22:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2858 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:20	PHX 06:55	4%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 2520 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:10	PHX 08:45	7%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 3016 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:40	PHX 10:20	10%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 4189 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:20	PHX 12:55	21%	3%	0.7%	66%
WN 2861 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:35	PHX 18:15	28%	7%	0.7%	46%
WN 2862 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:40	PHX 20:20	31%	7%	0.7%	43%
WN 2863 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:35	PHX 22:15	32%	7%	0.9%	48%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 16:05 → MCI 17:30WN 2812	1h 00m Kansas City	MCI 18:30 → PHX 19:15WN 2580	5h 10m	79%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON