Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4103 at 07:45, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4103 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:45	PNS 10:00	9%	2%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	2h 20m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	6h 25m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 51m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	1h 40m Austin	AUS 13:55 → PNS 15:45WN 931	6h 05m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 58m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → PNS 18:23DL 3059	5h 42m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	2h 45m St Louis	STL 14:55 → PNS 16:40WN 279	5h 40m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807	6h 33m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → HOU 09:15WN 4497	2h 45m Houston	HOU 12:00 → PNS 13:30WN 4795	6h 50m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON