Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4272 at 18:55, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4272 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:55	PWM 22:15	34%	7%	0.6%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 10:50 → PWM 12:20WN 1065	4h 20m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	5h 44m	96%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	2h 35m Nashville	BNA 11:15 → PWM 14:40WN 651	6h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 00m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → PWM 17:54DL 488	5h 49m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	3h 30m Baltimore	BWI 15:15 → PWM 16:45WN 297	6h 50m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → PWM 00:10 +1WN 4382	5h 50m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON