Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3579 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:40	RIC 15:30	11%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 2875 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:05	RIC 23:00	18%	5%	0.7%	12%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	4h 56m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 14:36 → RIC 16:21DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1263	6h 41m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 48m	99%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 13:50 → RIC 16:30WN 4530	4h 10m	89%	74%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → DEN 12:30WN 2960	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:40 → RIC 19:05WN 1693	7h 05m	87%	63%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → RIC 23:55WN 2353	5h 35m	92%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → RIC 23:55WN 2353	3h 55m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON