Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2876 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:50	RNO 17:00	21%	5%	0.6%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → RNO 09:05WN 2689	5h 50m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → RNO 09:40WN 146	6h 20m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 10:40 → RNO 12:10WN 4685	7h 40m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → RNO 12:55WN 5056	7h 25m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:45 → SAN 07:50WN 3103	2h 35m San Diego	SAN 10:25 → RNO 12:00WN 4954	8h 15m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:10 → LAS 11:00WN 2794	1h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 12:35 → RNO 14:05WN 652	6h 55m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	1h 45m Austin	AUS 14:00 → RNO 15:25WN 4078	7h 45m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → DEN 12:30WN 2960	3h 40m Denver	DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:40WN 4136	8h 40m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON