Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2877 at 13:20 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2877 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:20	ROC 15:55	22%	4%	0.7%	59%
WN 2878 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:50	ROC 21:30	33%	7%	0.7%	40%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:00 → BWI 09:45WN 2742	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 11:00 → ROC 12:15WN 2802	4h 15m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 15:55 → ROC 17:15WN 3789	4h 20m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	5h 15m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	5h 38m	92%	71%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → ROC 00:20 +1WN 1081	6h 00m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	5h 31m	98%	70%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → MCO 14:35WN 2818	1h 35m Orlando	MCO 16:10 → ROC 19:00WN 2693	7h 00m	95%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 19:00 → BWI 21:55WN 2745	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → ROC 00:20 +1WN 1081	4h 20m	74%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON