Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2570 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2570 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:35	SAT 13:15	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 3229 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	SAT 00:10	22%	6%	0.6%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	2h 35m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617	5h 55m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:20 → SAT 12:25WN 3149	7h 10m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05WN 4081	6h 45m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529	3h 10m Kansas City	MCI 14:55 → SAT 16:55WN 2583	6h 35m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	2h 15m Phoenix	PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	7h 38m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	7h 17m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	3h 20m Dallas	DAL 12:20 → SAT 13:25WN 3940	6h 45m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON