Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1546 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	SFO 12:35	27%	10%	0.6%	12%
WN 2893 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	SFO 00:15	35%	11%	0.7%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	9h 18m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SFO 09:25WN 2386	6h 10m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517	9h 24m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	9h 26m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	8h 26m	96%	71%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:15 → DEN 18:00WN 2769	3h 40m Denver	DEN 21:40 → SFO 23:30WN 4303	9h 15m	98%	66%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	3h 20m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SFO 13:20WN 1719	8h 30m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:45 → SAN 07:50WN 3103	3h 25m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → SFO 13:00WN 1677	9h 15m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:15 → SAN 16:25WN 2883	55m San Diego	SAN 17:20 → SFO 19:00WN 3533	6h 45m	69%	44%
Delta Details →	MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor	49m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	6h 40m	52%	41%
Southwest Details →	MDW 20:15 → LAS 22:05WN 596	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SFO 00:35 +1WN 2784	6h 20m	63%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON