Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2951 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	SLC 12:25	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 22:05	SLC 00:35	28%	7%	0.7%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SLC 09:20WN 452	5h 05m	97%	91%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	1h 45m Denver	DEN 10:05 → SLC 11:45WN 4027	5h 55m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:05 → AUS 07:35WN 2726	1h 40m Austin	AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403	6h 55m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	7h 22m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SLC 10:25WN 3339	6h 05m	92%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 10m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 11:40 → SLC 14:10WN 147	8h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 57m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 20:15 → LAS 22:05WN 596	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	6h 05m	63%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON