Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2094 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2094 MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 2897 MDW 18:55 → SMF 21:20 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2094 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:20	SMF 12:40	17%	3%	0.5%	70%
WN 4121 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:55	SMF 00:25	36%	8%	0.6%	42%
WN 2897 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:55	SMF 21:20	36%	8%	0.6%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 05m Denver	DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738	6h 15m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885	6h 25m	92%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	50m Phoenix	PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781	6h 20m	87%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON