Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745	6h 00m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 08:10 → SNA 09:30WN 3348	6h 10m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094	3h 10m Sacramento	SMF 15:50 → SNA 17:20WN 3833	9h 00m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:55 → SNA 11:15WN 3001	6h 05m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 10:30 → SNA 11:40WN 2092	7h 10m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329	8h 31m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	3h 05m Denver	DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:50WN 4175	8h 00m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 12:40 → SNA 13:55WN 375	7h 15m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:40 → PHX 20:20WN 2862	50m Phoenix	PHX 21:10 → SNA 22:25WN 4107	5h 45m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON