Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4653 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:50	SRQ 11:35	10%	3%	17.5%	95%
WN 2899 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:10	SRQ 17:50	20%	6%	17.4%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	7h 13m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 35m	98%	70%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 11:50 → SRQ 14:45WN 677	6h 30m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	2h 45m Baltimore	BWI 14:30 → SRQ 17:05WN 4817	7h 10m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	6h 48m	99%	67%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	2h 50m St Louis	STL 15:00 → SRQ 18:20WN 4913	6h 20m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 20:05 → SRQ 22:45WN 4383	7h 15m	93%	57%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:05 → BNA 18:35WN 2199	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 19:45 → SRQ 22:45WN 2700	4h 40m	78%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON