Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2906 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2906 MDW 05:00 → TPA 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4520 MDW 17:15 → TPA 20:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2906 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:00	TPA 08:25	4%	1%	15.5%	98%
WN 2907 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:15	TPA 12:50	11%	2%	16.6%	88%
WN 4546 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:25	TPA 18:05	23%	5%	16.6%	61%
WN 2910 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:10	TPA 23:50	29%	7%	8.6%	54%
WN 4520 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:15	TPA 20:50	32%	7%	14.9%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON